Saturday, June 18, 2011

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  • seahawks
    02-14 01:20 AM
    We totally believe in the cause, we believe in the hard work all of IV members, core and volunteers do. Ignorant are those who don't see them now and will they ever. Everyone wants quick results, just like fast food. Hats off to all of you who work so selfless and time you guys put in. Keep up the good work.




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  • thakurrajiv
    07-30 10:34 AM
    Dont even think about it unless you are a quant and have resources that can compete with the Hedge funds. Commodities do not behave like stocks, you need to be able to model prices using multi variate models. Then there is jumps. You should be familiar with jump diffusion/step functions etc. To be able to model these you will need to use a factor model like the Pilipovic model. Even then it will only be an approximation.

    Commodities are purchased as futures. Futures are derivatives and you will need to hedge them. A perfect hedge for a future is 1:1 in the spot. Since there is no arb here you will have to use options. To model the price of an option you will have to be a master of Black-Scholes option pricing model or a similar method like monte carlo simulation. Even if you figure all this out you will have to delta hedge. Delta hedging commodity options is very expensive, you will bleed money. Look up Hodges-Nuberger model for delta hedging options on derivatives.

    I suggest a book by Daragana Pilipovic called "Energy Risk", buy it and read it. After that if you still feel you can take on hundreds of computers running parallel with teams of quants modelling prices and programs trading algarithimic models; then Good luck!!

    Trade stocks as modelling stocks is comparitively easy. Stocks have drift (mu). If you are saturated with stocks look into options and Fixed income. Leave all these complicated stuff to the pros. You have better chance of hitting a jackpot in a casino than making money in trading commodities.
    Wow, smisachu summarized the issue in 2 paragraphs !! Great post smisachu.
    As smisachu pointed out for futures, forwards or options trading you will be going against the pros. Hedging is also not a static process, it is dynamic which means you need scale(lots of money) to trade. Unless you have lot of money and big heart for loss, it does not make sense to play in those markets. If you really want to try, try playing with options using optionsExpress or some other cheap trading website.
    Now fundamental investing is different. Instead of directly playing with commodities you can play commodity stocks which are proxy for the commodity. The issue here is there are a few big players and bunch of small players. Small plays are too risky as most of them have resources outside US. You might be able to play big ones or medium sized ones. Have a look at companies like COP, EAC etc. You might be interested in looking at Canadian oil sands and trust plays.
    Let me warn you about the volatility. As covered by smisachu, the pros can manipulate the prices in futures. Futures seem to be affecting spot a lot. Oil prices or any commodity can be very volatilile. So if you can't take 10% swings in days/hours, don't even think about commodity stocks !!
    Personally I am long bull of oil and will stay like this in forseable future. I have interesting stories on my boom and bust experiences but that is a good beer talk :).




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  • coldcloud
    03-29 10:13 AM
    Shared on my Facebook page.

    Freinds, Its easy to share from Pappu's post. Just use bookmark at the bottom of the post and it will give you options to pick.


    Thanks, this was useful.




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  • shree772000
    10-10 12:15 PM
    If you are not in india, then you are somewhere to earn more than you do than in india. So investment is safe if you can afford to invest in that property without a loan. If you are taking a loan you are getting ripped off. STOP there.

    to me agricultural land is next to investment in gold. agri land always holds value(sale value) or appreciates over time. Always you can get decent return by farming something there. So my belief is you always get 6%+ return on investment over short/long period of time.

    city properties are just a ripp off. So get only one property if you want to live for yourself.. Investment of say 50 lacs on a flat(condo), may give you a good rent. But for how long? and what % of interest you pay on that loan? And what will the aging affect be on that flat!!...
    that way land | house is better choice!


    To me below are investment items first the highest safety + return(decreasing order or preference)
    1. gold(other precious metals)
    2. treasary bonds../govt assured accounts
    2. agri land(either in india or US, in is labor is higher)
    3. city independent houses
    4. select mutual funds
    5. stock market
    6. Condos

    I concur. The order will vary a little bit depending on market for shhort term gains. But for current market I think this order makes sense and also for building a long term low risk portfolio.



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  • smisachu
    07-30 11:47 AM
    You can trade commodities like stocks by taking a directional bet on long term price movement. But this is what you need to consider. Stocks always trade in Spot. If you buy MSFT you own shares of Microsoft today. Although single stock futures (SSF) are available now we will not look at derivatives right now.

    Commodities are traded as futures. You can buy Soy futures today for December delivery or lean hogs for dec 2010 delivery.
    Under conditions of No-Arbitrage the price of the future will be the price of the spot plus storage and delivery costs. If for example 3 month LSC (Light Sweet crude) is trading on NYMEX at $60; the cost of storage and delivery is say $20 for 3 months. Then 6 month LSC should be trading at $80. But if you look at the contract it might be trading at $55.

    The reason being fundamentals. The peak driving season or the hurricane season is over and heating oil season is not yet on us or by looking at weather derivatives traders are factoring in milder winter. The leader of Iran has declared he will step down from office and retire to Hawaii, the rebels in Nigeria have turned themselves in and joined a church missionary..stuff like that.

    So you might believe these fundamental assumptions or you might do your own research and say that the traders are wrong and they are discounting critical factors and the price should be more. So you can go long the future and hope for an increase in price and sell the future before delivery for a profit. This is the expensive route but you will never be wiped out for sure. Price of crude may drop but will never go to zero.

    Or you trade options on the futures, for example:
    Borrow money (leverage) buy the call; short delta units of the future contract and invest the proceeds at the risk free rate.
    If you are correct the call will end up in the money, the shorted futures will loose value but since it is “delta” units it is only a portion of the position and the invested money will earn you the risk free rate. So you make some money on the call and loose some on the hedge and net you will profit. (Hopefully to cover the transaction costs and taxes)

    If you are wrong (price falls) your call will expire worth less so you are wiped out there, your short will increase in value and you will still earn the risk free rate. So although net you will loose money it will not be as much as a naked call because of delta hedging.

    This is explained in very very simple terms. Each transaction step will indicate modeling prices to know if the future is priced correctly, if the option is priced correctly and if the leverage you are getting is correct. Plus modeling future price movements and expected rate of returns and the most primary thing in any transaction the “Alpha”. Source of alpha should be very clearly defined. Let me go a bit deep and include some simple math:

    E[R] = Alpha + betaR + epsalon

    Where E[R] is the expected return-(see statists for more on expectation functions.)
    alphais the excess return
    betaR is market return or what the price of the commodity does in the duration chosen. (Market betais 1)
    epsalonis error term or un explained return.

    (Sorry the greek symbols did not display so I wrote words)

    This is a kindergarten model of modeling your alpha. As there are many variables you will use a multi variant model to figure out return. Plus as I said in my previous post you have to model jumps. Jumps are spikes of very short duration which will only be seen in a log normal price distribution. A Gaussian distribution might not be changed much because of a spike of small duration. For example if you are trading electricity and the temperature in NJ hits 110 degrees, there is going to be a spike on that day for electricity prices but this will fall as soon as temperature falls.

    And the core issue of all is you need to have access to products as indicated by puddonhead plus money and leverage capacity and risk bearing capacity. As you see this is not for the faint of heart or for some one to do part time. If you are really sophisticated and can do this with good resources, fine or else my advice is stick to stocks or stock derivatives. Hedge funds have teams of quants and super computers sitting and doing this every day. They will vacuum out even the slightest of alpha out there; they will simply take your money if you enter into a wrong trade. If someone is a quant and does this for a living then if his contract allows it or if his licensing allows it legally he can do it on the side but apart from it definitely not something the retail investor should indulge in. Just invest in some ETF like GLD or USO or some commodity mutual funds at the max.

    Best of luck!!




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  • fasterthanlight�
    06-22 01:33 PM
    If ben doesnt do something today, i might just have to go ahead and start the poll myself.



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  • english_august
    07-12 10:00 PM
    This is the press release prepared with help from the Core. Please send it out to your friends, journalists and other contacts.

    http://www.touchdownusa.org/SanJose/SanJoseRallyPR.pdf

    Best of Luck for the rally.




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  • fasterthanlight�
    05-31 05:30 PM
    Theres a bunch of gangs at my school, one of them wanted me to join 'cause im pretty good with a bow staff...

    Ok, enough napolean dynamite quotations for now... ben specifically asked for no spam!



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  • smisachu
    01-25 09:19 PM
    I have read in several forum that one cannot form own company and sponsor H1 through that. The logic is sponsoring H1 is work and you cannot work without H1.
    I think it is acceptable logic. Otherwise many would have sponsored H1 for self.

    Check with some attorney.

    I started my company when on H1 but I did not sponsor myself or anyone. I also did not withdraw earnings from the company since it was not my main income. I only started withdrawing earnings from the company after I got my GC and I can claim on taxes. But it is a good idea to ask an attorney.




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  • ElectricGrandpa
    05-31 12:34 AM
    i know its pretty lame, but what i would really like would be a regular black ipod, and i dont mean that u2 crap, with the wierd red and signatures on the back.

    I like the red and black, but I don't like the signatures... I wish it was black all the way around the back. That would be perfect and it *might* actually make me want to get an ipod.



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  • polapragada
    08-13 08:43 PM
    Yes, that is right, I said �plight of EB2-India�.

    I am a passive observer of these forums. But some of the ridiculous notions floating around here have motivated me to vent. First and foremost, the law as written is highly favorable to people in EB3 categories, even from India. Here is how...

    Take my example (and there are thousands like myself)....came to the US 8 years ago, spent 5 years working day and night to earn a PhD on a low (barely sustainable) stipend, got FIRST job saw decent money for the first time 6 years after I came.

    Now, compare this to a person working an EB3-job for the last 8 years. Not only does this person do a real job that hopefully provides a respectable income but this person also has the option of moving to EB2 after 5 years of experience. So, at the end of the day in 2008; this person comes out ahead of me in terms of money, in terms of priority date (if ported) and most likely in terms of GC.

    There are complaints all over the forum which have the stink of pretentiousness such as �oh..i am a poor EB3 waiting for n number of years� etc etc. What you guys seem to forget is that YOU are NOT an EB3, it is your JOB that is EB3. You have all the opportunities that were/are available to a person who sweated it out in the university system here to gain more qualifications and get an EB2 job. You CHOSE not to. The general discussion seems to center around cribbing about the US immigration system (Immigration by the way is a privilege defined by laws, not a birthright) and then blaming the EB2 crowd when they finally see the system implement the law as intended in the first place (horizontal spillover rules).

    All these posts that refer to �my career is over because my gc is delayed� are nothing but a pathetic excuse. Law of supply and demand....if you have a skillset that is valuable, you will be fine with or without GC anywhere in the world. It takes a bunch of documents to remain here legally, all you need is a passport to go back if the system here seems so bad.

    For all the attacks that are bound to happen, here is the fodder.....this is probably my first and last post, I haven�t contributed a dime to IV, will work here as long as I like it and if not, India is a great country and provides enough opportunities for any skillset !!

    I feel education should be rewarded (Every where). High skilled should get prefference.

    chaanakya may be you should consider putting your words in soft intangiable worlds...




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  • PDOCT05
    07-19 09:53 AM
    mine 2 - rwilliams at 7:55 cool ...thanks some one on the same boat..Mine was received on july 3rd at 9:02AM.



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  • Dipika
    10-27 01:52 PM
    Rongch60,
    Same Here !
    I got 6 months wait letter too. My wife (Dependent) for 60 days letter.
    EB2/TSC .
    I m lost as well!!!
    i filled up #7001 form and also E.mailed a follow up letter today.

    i had opened SR on 4th sept, same reply - case is preadjudicated and under review, wait for 6 months. my case is at TSC. i have taken infopass for 4th Nov to check again.




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  • va_labor2002
    07-25 08:14 PM
    I have been to different state and I have stayed in different state. I think if an individual had stayed for one year in a state, the indivudual is eligible for in state tuition, that is the general rule I observed in all the state I have stayed. My wife is studying. I don't pay any fee for her. The tuition is covered under HOPE scholarship.

    My status I140 approved and I485 pending.

    Can you please explain little more about opening your own e-business and File E visa. What type of e-business to start? How to file E-VISA ? Have you filed yet ?



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  • nik.patelc
    07-18 11:47 AM
    Just imagine. If all MSFT, Motorola, Sun, Oracle & big companies employees and all others take 2 days off and go to washington and show peaceful demostration, i m sure it will make them thinking and do something...




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  • jitnair
    01-08 07:56 AM
    Just as an update for those anxious folks - I got my passport back with the stamp on Jan 3rd (Intv was on Dec 13th). Visa issue date was on Jan 2nd.

    So plan for 'a month' atleast if you are visiting the Chennai consulate for H1b stamping.

    Also make sure your photo is exact as per specs..Mine was taken in US (Costco) for the Green card process ..but the guy who is sorting all the papers in the consulate send me out to the VFS office to take another photo as he didnt like the way my photo was taken (although there was nothing obvious..no point in arguing to them)..I thought I was alone, but saw many folks outside ...I had to take this at the VFS office (close by..VFS shuttle is there outside the consulate) and return back to consulate..(will cause atleast 1.5 hours delay..I barely made it to my flight back home)..



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  • akhilmahajan
    04-28 04:26 PM
    Its a law and if one follows it, there is nothing wrong in it.

    As Chandu has mentioned, lets not interpret it the way we want. Its a law, and it gives us the option to have some kind of liberty. If you have not done anything wrong, and have followed the law, eventually everything will fall in place. Although during this journey we will have to face some tough challenges but in the end we will win it.

    So, lets all get together in getting ourselves heard.




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  • dreamworld
    12-13 03:54 PM
    Forum should be free for members. We can move into following...

    First, We can keep the free membership mandatory and Do not allow any Guest users.
    Second, Bring the members onto state chapters.

    This will take us more onto grassroot level participation.




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  • Bpositive
    02-06 11:06 PM
    How do we call DOS ? Is there any contact number for this Visa delays ?

    Please let us know.

    http://www.unitedstatesvisas.gov/contact.html

    202-663-1225 extn 100




    malaGCPahije
    08-12 02:33 PM
    Steady march!, not fast march!! ;) I am very hopeful of the dates moving past mid 2002 for FY 2009. (which is about 8 months movement from now, and I think that is very possible).


    I am thinking we have about 5-6% representation for the earlier years on this poll? What is everyone's estimate on the representation??

    abt 5%. I think people from 2001/02/03 must have got so much frustrated that very few of them even check the visa dates, forget about checking IV regularly.




    ak_2006
    07-16 12:42 PM
    I signed it



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